The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Third Quarter Housing Forecast update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 100,900 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Strong economic fundamentals are underpinning consumer demand and are expected to keep home sales at elevated levels through 2018. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

“British Columbia’s position as the best performing economy in the country is bolstering consumer confidence and housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong employment growth, a marked increase in migrants from other provinces, and the ageing of the millennial generation is supporting a heightened level of housing transactions. However, a limited supply of homes for sale is causing home prices to rise significantly in many regions, particularly in the Lower Mainland condominium market”.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to $715,000 this year, and a further 4.1 per cent to nearly $745,000 in 2018. However, the provincial average price is being skewed lower as the result of a change in the mix and share of homes selling. Fewer detached home sales relative to attached and apartment properties and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region are operating to hold back the provincial average price. Home prices in ten of the 11 real estate board areas are forecast to rise at a higher rate than the provincial average.

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

Most recent stats from the BC Real Estate Association.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 36 per cent to 5,507 units in October compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province increased 2 per cent in October from September 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 6 per cent to $521,859 in October compared to the same month last year.

“BC home sales have posted moderate gains since the summer months,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Consumer demand was bolstered by double-dip in mortgage interest rates and the associated increase in purchasing power.”

“Total active residential listings in the province have declined 18 per cent since June,” added Muir. “However, the housing market remains tilted in favour of homebuyers.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 2 per cent $32.5 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales declined 10 per cent to 64,735 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 9 per cent to $502,353 over the same period.

For more: BCREA Site

Stats round-up from the REBGV for October 2010

Greater Vancouver home sales have remained steady over the past four months, indicating stability in the residential housing market. With the MLS® sales to active listing inventory ratio indicating a buyers’ market, properties appropriately priced are selling.

According to the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI), the benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 4.6 per cent to $579,349 in October 2010 from $553,702 in October 2009. Since June, however, residential home prices in Greater Vancouver have remained relatively unchanged, declining 0.2 per cent.

“We’ve seen a lot more consistency and less volatility in recent months when it comes to both number of sales and pricing, although it’s important to remember that conditions often vary between communities and neighbourhoods,” Jake Moldowan, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said.

Looking at transactions, the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,337 in October 2010. This represents a 5.3 per cent increase compared to September 2010 and a 36.9 per cent decline from the 3,704 sales in October 2009.

More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 71.3 per cent increase over the 1,364 residential sales in October 2008, a 22.8 per cent decline compared to October 2007’s 3,028 sales, and a 14.1 per cent decline compared to the 2,722 sales in October 2006.

“As we enter the final two months of the year, buyer demand is in closer alignment with supply than we’ve seen for most of 2010,” Moldowan said. “Those buying today recognize that they still have a chance to enter the market with near-record low interest rates, while gradual reductions in inventory have eased downward pressure on prices.”

Total active listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 14,075, an 8.6 per cent decline from last month and a 16.4 per cent increase from October 2009. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.7 per cent to 3,698 in October 2010 compared to October 2009 when 4,977 new units were listed.

Sales of detached properties in October 2010 reached 976, a decrease of 34.4 per cent from the 1,487 detached sales recorded in October 2009, and a 98 per cent increase from the 493 units sold in October 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from October 2009 to $796,883.

Sales of apartment properties reached 984 in October 2010, a decline of 38.8 per cent compared to the 1,607 sales in October 2009, and an increase of 52.1 per cent compared to the 647 sales in October 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.4 per cent from October 2009 to $390,074.

Attached property sales in October 2010 totalled 377, a decline of 38.2 per cent compared to the 610 sales in October 2009, and a 68.3 per cent increase from the 224 attached properties sold in October 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4 per cent between October 2009 and 2010 to $487,530.

For immediate release

Vancouver, BC – October 13, 2010. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 36 per cent to 5,511 units in September compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province increased 2 per cent in September from August 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 4 per cent to $493,846 in September compared to the same month last year.

“BC home sales increased for the second consecutive month in September,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, consumer demand is still noticeably lower than last fall’s frenetic pace.”

“Market conditions have improved, with the months of supply declining from 11.1 in June to 8.9 in September,” added Muir. A balanced market typically exhibits five to seven months of supply.

“The current downward pressure on mortgage rates is expected to bolster housing demand this fall as consumers take advantage of a second opportunity to secure near record low interest rates,” noted Muir.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 2 per cent to $29.6 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales declined 7 per cent to 59,228 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 9 per cent to $500,539 over the same period.

For more info, download full pdf from the BCREA Newsroom

Thanks to Graham Connor (www.grahamconnor.com)

Housing Forecast Update – Third Quarter 2010

BC housing markets are returning to typical post-recession demand patterns. The dramatic rebound in consumer demand during 2009 and subsequent decline during the first two quarters of 2010 has set the stage for a gradual increase in home sales during the fall and through 2011. Residential unit sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC are forecast to decrease 7 per cent to 79,500 units in 2010, before climbing 5 per cent to 83,400 units in 2011.

A slower than expected normalization of interest rates will temper erosion of affordability as economic output posts more moderate growth for the balance of this year and through 2011. Stronger corporate profits are triggering employment growth and a reduction in the unemployment rate is now underway.

A larger inventory of homes for sale has created the most favourable supply conditions for home buyers in more than a year. While tighter mortgage qualifications for low equity home buyers has negatively impacted demand, more borrowers are now channeling into 5-year fixed mortgages where discounted rates increase purchasing power.

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to increase 6 per cent to $492,800 this year and edge down 1 per cent to $489,500 in 2011. Some softness in home prices is expected through the summer months in most regional markets. However, inventory levels peaked in May and will likely edge lower in the coming months, leading to more balanced conditions in the fall with a commensurate firming of home prices.

“The volatility in consumer demand characteristic of the past 24 months is expected to give way to more gradual improvement through 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Housing demand has fallen back to earth from its break-neck pace at the end of 2009 and is expected to more closely match overall economic performance over the next 18 months.

“A larger inventory of homes for sale has created the most favourable conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” added Muir. “However, the buyers’ market is expected to be short-lived as total active listings peaked in May and are beginning to wane, with more balanced conditions set to emerge in the fall.”

After a sharp pull back in new home construction last year, home builders are gradually increasing production to meet demand. BC led the country in population growth over the last three quarters and with the inventory of complete and unoccupied units expected to decline, builders are adjusting production to match supply with household formation.

From the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Latest Update from the BCREA:

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 42 per cent to 5,784 units in July compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province declined 19 per cent in July from June 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 6 per cent to $491,832 in July compared to the same month last year.

“A relatively large number of homes for sale have created the most favourable supply conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® active residential listings were 21 per cent higher in July than at the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, with newly listed MLS® residential units now declining, tighter market conditions may emerge this fall.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 16 per cent to $24.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales rose 4 per cent to 48,127 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 13 per cent to $504,281 over the same period.

for more info see the BCREA site’s newsroom

New Report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver:

Home sales activity in Greater Vancouver was quieter last month than most Julys over the past decade, with residential sales, prices, and the number of homes listed for sale trending downward in recent months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,255 in July 2010. This represents a 45.2 per cent decline from the 4,114 sales in July 2009, the highest selling July ever recorded, and a 24.1 per cent decline compared to June 2010.

Looking back further, last month’s residential sales represent a 3.7 per cent increase over the 2,174 residential sales in July 2008, a 41.8 per cent decline compared to July 2007’s 3,873 sales, and a 17.5 per cent decline compared to July 2006’s 2,732 sales.

“With the pace of home sales and listings easing off in our market, we’ve begun to see a levelling of home prices from the record highs seen in the spring, creating greater affordability,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “Activity in today’s marketplace is clearly trending in favour of buyers.”

The number of properties listed for sale on the market has been trending downward since spring, with 4,138 new listings in July compared to April’s peak of 7,648. New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined 17.9 per cent in July 2010 compared to July 2009, when 5,041 properties were listed for sale.

At 16,431, the total number of property listings on the MLS® in July declined 6.5 per cent compared to last month and increased 33 per cent compared to July 2009.

“It’s currently taking home sellers who work with a REALTOR®, on average, 45 days to sell their property, which is a historically healthy timeframe for people on both sides of a transaction,” Moldowan said.

Since spring, housing prices have decreased 2.8 per cent compared to the all-time high reached in April when the residential benchmark price was $593,419. Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 9.1 per cent to $577,074 in July 2010 from $528,821 in July 2009.

Sales of detached properties in July 2010 reached 908, a decrease of 43.7 per cent from the 1,614 detached sales recorded in July 2009 and a 9.8 per cent increase from the 827 units sold in July 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.5 per cent from July 2009 to $793,193.

Sales of apartment properties reached 979 in July 2010, a decline of 42.7 per cent compared to the 1,708 sales in July 2009 and an increase of 1.3 per cent compared to the 966 sales in July 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 6.2 per cent from July 2009 to $387,879.

Attached property sales in July 2010 totalled 368, a decline of 53.5 per cent compared to the 792 sales in July 2009 and a 3.4 per cent decline from the 381 attached properties sold in July 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 8.6 per cent between July 2009 and 2010 to $490,995.

For full info, go to the REBGV website

More Timely Predictions from the BC Real Estate Association

By Cameron Muir, Chief Economist and Brendon Ogmundson, Economist, British Columbia Real Estate Association

The Canadian economy grew at the exceptional pace of 6.1% in the first quarter of 2010, propelled by a booming housing market, strong consumer spending and the rebuilding of private sector inventories. Moreover, growth in the second quarter of 2010, while not expected to register the sizzling pace of the previous six months, should be a robust 3%-4%.

However there are signs that the economy, if not stalling out, may be slowing down. April’s monthly GDP print was disappointingly flat as consumers moved to the sidelines, sending retail sales lower by almost 2%.

Even if Canadian consumers are beginning to tire out, economic growth should be supported in coming months by projects initiated under the federal government’s infrastructure stimulus plan. This stimulus will provide a needed boost to the economy through the remainder of 2010, with projected impacts peaking in the third quarter, but will create a drag on growth in 2011 as the stimulus is withdrawn from government expenditure.

The strength of the Canadian economic recovery over the past six months is evidenced by the over 300,000 jobs created in the Canadian economy since the beginning of the year. While this exceptional rate of job creation stands in stark contrast to the gloomy employment situation of our southern neighbour, it also re-affirms the need for the Bank of Canada to begin withdrawing its emergency level of monetary stimulus by raising interest rates, particularly given the proximity of core inflation to its 2% target rate.

The withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus from the Canadian economy in coming months will result in slower growth in both the second half of 2010 and into 2011. This growth slowdown may be further exacerbated by weaker than currently anticipated US and global economic growth as well as a higher Canadian dollar resulting from a rise in Canadian interest rates relative to the United States.

In all, slower economic growth and inflation that is within the Bank of Canada’s comfort zone should mean that, while interest rates are certain to rise, the pace of interest rate increases should be orderly and the level of interest rates will remain near historic lows through the remainder of the year.

See more at BCREA Realtor Link here.

Here’s some good news from the British Columbia Real Estate Association:

August Home Sales Continue at Brisk Pace

Vancouver, BC – September 11, 2009. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province climbed 66 per cent to 8,565 units in August compared to the same month last year. The average MLS® residential sales price in the province climbed 12 per cent to $471,078 from $421,685 in August 2008.

“Homes sales continued at a rapid pace in August,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Attractive home prices and low mortgage rates were key drivers in the market.”

The number of active residential listings declined 20 per cent over the past year, with August posting 26 per cent fewer active listings than the peak in December 2008 (seasonally adjusted). “Home prices edged higher in many markets over the summer months as declining inventories created competition among homebuyers for the best properties.”

Year-to-date, MLS® residential sales dollar volume declined 2 per cent to $25 billion over the same period last year. A total of 54,945 units were sold in the first eight months of 2009, up 1 per cent from 2008, while the average MLS® price declined 2 per cent to $454,769.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, follow this link: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news_room/2009-08.pdf.